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Market-Level Forecasts for 2021

With markets in gradual recovery, we have a clearer picture of how advertising will fare next year in U.S. markets (watch video).  Our new forecasts are now available to Compass users as part of their annual subscription to our market-level data. We’re also making them available to new clients for one-time purchase.

Quick Video Views

2-Minute View: Brace For ‘Uneven’ Recovery

1- Minute View:  What’s in the Report

What does the report include?

The report includes 17 interactive charts and tables, allowing a user to display multiple views of total advertising and market expenditures for 2019, 2020, and 2021.  Accessible data spans 10 types of traditional media (radio, outdoor, TV, cable, newspaper, etc.), 7 types of digital ad expenditures (SEM, streaming video/OTT, targeted banners, etc.), 25 types of marketing expenditures (sponsorships, coupons, events, games, etc.), and 100 types of business (auto dealers, furniture stores, HVAC, restaurants, amusement parks, etc.).  EXAMPLE: The report can estimate what HVAC dealers spent on OTT in your market in 2019, how that is projected to change in 2020, and what’s forecast for 2021.

When will I receive it?

In most cases, within 48 hours.  Reports are compiled individually based on the geographic definition you furnish. In you order multiple markets, your reports will be compiled simultaneously and delivered within the same time period.

Which markets are covered?

Our data spans all 3,141 counties and county-equivalents (parishes and independent cities) in the United States, excluding Puerto Rico.  You define your market.  We cannot conduct assessments based on Zip Codes or partial counties.

Download a sample report

Click THIS LINK to download a sample report.  You will be asked to enter your contact information.

Pricing & Ordering info

To inquire about pricing or to order a Market-Level Ad Forecast Report for your market, please email us or call 757.221.6641.

How we compiled forecasts

METHODOLOGY

While this special midyear update required the consideration of special factors (described below), its basis is the disruptive methodology that we’ve relied on for two decades. This method represents a “bottom-up” approach, building estimates not on what media companies receive — the typical method — but on what businesses in a specific market spend.  Greater detail on that methodology can be found here.

Our 2020 midyear forecast additionally weighs the impact of three factors on any given business’s expenditures. These factors were incorporated into Borrell’s Compass engine and reflect the most likely scenario based on the most recent data through June 2020.  The factors are:

BUSINESS HEALTH – 4+ years of retail sales were tracked and projected through 2020.  In addition, retail reaction from the recession of 2008 was also taken into consideration. The fact that the 2008 recession is essentially different than what the U.S. is experiencing now was also considered.

MEDIA HEALTH – Current media forecasts were merged with updated outlooks from trade associations as well as forecasts on budgets culled from hundreds of media professionals throughout the country.

CONSUMER HEALTH – Up-to-date monthly employment numbers were factored with daily updated COVID19-related figures to provide a view into the relative consumer well-being in each county across the U.S.

We introduced predictive models that relied on these elements and were applied to the existing data within the Compass database. New forecasts were produced, cleansed for anomalies, and reran. The results are a current view of marketing expenditures in each county in the U.S.

As new information becomes available, we will update these forecasts as necessary.

Ask us a question about the report

To submit a question, CLICK HERE. We typically respond within the hour.  Or you can call 757-221-6641 during regular business hours.